The Global Calculator v24

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Display
- Summary






PLEASE NOTE: Costs projected within the calculator have been developed to provide possible future indications of costs associated with technologies. THESE APPROXIMATIONS HAVE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINITY DUE TO THE GLOBAL NATURE OF PROJECTIONS. THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED WITHOUT CONDUCTING FURTHER DETAILED ANALYSIS.
Costs of your pathway compared to the following counterfactual pathway:     How are costs calculated? How are costs calculated?

For more details please click here.
Display
- Temperature change over time
Please Note: If a very high emissions pathway is generated, projected temperature change will not be able to be displayed.
The principle of the greenhouse effect was first put forward in the 1800s by scientists including Joseph Fourier and Svante Arrhenius who also noticed that our burning of fossil fuels would release carbon dioxide and warm the planet. Since then, this principle has been tested by scientists using laboratory experiments and computer simulations These different approaches have demonstrated that our emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) will result in global net warming and therefore local changes to weather patterns.

We can calculate the extra energy trapped by the extra CO2 generated in your pathway, by using Arrhenius' formula for the rate of heat trapping, Q = 3.71 x ln (C/C_0) Joules of energy per square meter per second. The constant 3.71 comes from the latest IPCC report.
The order of magnitude impacts of your pathway are:
- the total amount of extra energy trapped due to human emissions of CO2 since 1870 is about XXXX by 2050 and XXXX by 2100;
- the fraction of this energy which falls on the ice sheets would be enough to melt XXXX of ice by 2100, which would cause about XXXXm of sea level rise. The fraction of this energy which falls on the ocean would cause it to expand, giving about an additional XXXXm of sea level rise. The total rise in sea level could therefore be XXXXm.
These are simple calculations using basic physics. These results are not taken from the more complex IPCC modelling.
These are "back of the envelope" calculations which don't involve the use of any climate models, just the basic physics of energy and heat transfer. To do this calculation, we've assumed that the fraction of emitted CO2 which goes into the atmosphere remains constant at about 0.44, but climate models suggest that this fraction is likely to increase for high-emission pathways. Change the atmospheric fraction lever to see how this influences your results.
Display
- Land use






The estimated quantity of CO2 captured by the ocean by 2100, associated with the user selected pathway is ~XXXX
About screen will be displayed here
Sharing this pathway with others

If you want to save or share your pathway, bookmark this page, or take note of this url:*



To share, just send someone the url.

* On various modern browsers, this url is the same as the one you will see in the address bar as you use the calculator. On older browsers, such as Internet Explorer 9, it will not be.
Sharing this pathway with the excel version of the Global Calculator

You may want to explore your pathway in more detail, taking a look at all the assumptions behind our modelling, by downloading the underlying Global Calculator Excel spreadsheet.

If you do, then you can recreate the pathway you have chosen in this tool by copying the numbers from the box below and pasting them into the User Inputs worksheet in the Global Calculator excel file.
Use this box to copy
the actual pathway into the
Global Calculator Excel spreadsheet:
Set your output preferences
Energy:
Power:
Currency:
Documentation screen will be displayed here

This page compares values of your pathway to the 'No Action (2025 Baseline)' pathway and other focus pathways. The focus pathways are derived from the 'No Action (2025 Baseline)' pathway. The ambition for selected levers has been intensified in order to showcase their potential impact on global GHG reduction and decarbonisation. It is important to recognize that these pathways are most effective when combined in order to achieve 1.5°C or 2°C reduction targets, rather than considered in isolation.


Click here to compare your lever settings to other pathways instead.

Field 2025 2050
Your pathway
CFP 1
CFP 2
CFP 3
CFP 4
CFP 5
CFP 6
Emissions and temperature
GHG emissions (t CO2e) per capita
Cumulative emissions by 2100 (Gt CO2e)
Temperature change in 2100 (⁰C)
Demographics and long term
Population (billions of people)
% population in urban areas
Energy
Total energy supply (EJ / year)
Total energy demand (EJ / year)
Energy demand (kWh) per capita
Proportion of primary energy from fossil fuels
Bioenergy supply (EJ / year)
% of oil reserves (as of 2025) left in the ground
% of gas reserves (as of 2025) left in the ground
% of coal reserves (as of 2025) left in the ground
Electricity
Electricity demand (kWh) per capita
Wind capacity (GW)
Solar capacity (GW)
Nuclear capacity (GW)
Hydro-electric capacity (GW)
CCS for power (GW)
Unabated fossil fuel capacity (GW)
Efficiency of unabated fossil fuel power generation
Efficiency of CCS fossil fuel power generation
Emissions intensity (global average g CO2e / kWh)
Transport
Number of passenger vehicles on the road (thousands)
% urban cars that are zero emission (electric/hydrogen)
Efficiency of urban ICE cars (lge per 100km)
Total passenger vehicle km travelled per capita
Total passenger vehicle km travelled per capita plus int
Distance travelled per person by air (global average)
Global freight (Tonne km / capita)
Buildings
Number of appliances per household
Number of washing machines in an average urban household
Refrigerator average power (W) in urban areas
Building temperature in warm months (⁰C)
Building temperature in cold months (⁰C)
Home/building insulation (rate of heat loss in GW / M ha*℃)
% urban households using zero-carbon space heating (heat-pumps & solar)
% urban households that have access to electricity
Manufacturing
Iron, steel and aluminium output (Gt)
Paper and other output (Gt)
Chemicals output (Gt)
Cement output (Gt)
Timber output (Gt)
Global Oxygen steel technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2025)
Global Pulp & paper: Pulp technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2025)
Global Chemicals: High Value Chemicals technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2025)
Global Cement technology (% decrease in energy demand from 2025)
% of manufacturing emissions captured by CCS
Demand for consumer packaging (% of 2025 tonne demand)
Demand for electrical equipment (% of 2025 tonne demand)
Lifespan of refrigerator (years) in urban areas
Land
Crop yields (EJ per M ha)
% of productive land used for bioenergy
% of productive land used for commercial forestry
Food
Calories consumed per head (kcal / person / day)
Calories from meat (kcal / person / day)
Emissions saved
Emissions saved by speculative GHG removal technologies (Gt CO2e / year)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
By using the Global Calculator you are agreeing to be bound to its conditions of use.            Based on spreadsheet v.3.99.0.

Welcome to the Global Calculator

The Global Calculator is a model of the world's energy, land and food systems to 2050. It allows you to explore the world's options for tackling climate change and see how they all add up. With the Calculator, you can find out whether everyone can have a good lifestyle while also tackling climate change.


The default pathway you will see is 'No Action (2025 Baseline)' if the world did nothing to tackle climate change. The additional focus pathways are derived from the 'No Action (2025 Baseline)' pathway. The ambition for selected levers has been intensified in order to showcase their potential impact on global GHG reduction and decarbonisation. It is important to recognize that these pathways are most effective when combined in order to achieve 1.5°C or 2°C reduction targets, rather than considered in isolation.

For the significant majority of levers, a linear interpolation is applied from the 2025 baseline year to project the corresponding ambition level in 2050, with values assumed to increase at a constant annual rate over the modelling period.

For more information and tips, see how to use tool.